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Wednesday, 19 March 14
INSTEAD OF DECIDING WHETHER THE GLASS IS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY, I AM CURRENTLY GLAD THERE IS WATER IN THE GLASS - EVA TZIMA
 By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Right when you think that you have all your facts straight, right when things are stabilizing again for the Dry Bulk market, which was badly battered for the first couple of months of the year but didn’t collapse, a day like last Wednesday comes and makes you reconsider. For most of us who were caught up in the latest news regarding the developments in the Black Sea, the sudden drop of the BDI on Wednesday, caused exclusively by Cape rates plummeting, came as a big slap on the face. And as the market has since shown a cautious yet stable behavior, the drop of last mid-week has somewhat remained away from the spotlight, with some being quick to explain it as just a glitch, which has come and gone fast, probably based on the price performance of iron ore and other commodities. But what exactly caused such a drop in rates?
For the past years, China, the world’s second largest economy, has been considered the pedestal upon which global shipping growth will find a stable footing. The outlook of the dry bulk trade itself, has been inextricably linked to the future of the country’s economy, and despite voices raising concerns every now and then regarding the sustainability of projected growth, formal figures provided by the Chinese government have been reassuring that the country would opt for growth at a slower gear in the coming years, yet a growth that would be more sustainable and at the same time sufficient to drag upwards with it a number of sectors left ailing post 2008.
On Monday last week, news released over the weekend that China’s February exports unexpectedly dropped, sent shockwaves across the markets. This was in fact the biggest drop noted since the financial crisis and an even bigger blow on confidence regarding the country’s growth stability. The data revealed a 18.1% year-on-year decline, while an increase was originally expected. As imports continued growing simultaneously, the country’s trade balance has in fact switched from a surplus in January to a deficit at the end of February, the biggest deficit recorded in the Chinese economy in two years.
The immediate effect, of what was the biggest fall on Chinese exports since August 2009, was the plummeting of the iron ore price for delivery to China, which touched a 17 month low. As the country imports around 2/3 of the global seaborne iron ore, the dry bulk market was destined to feel a big chunk of the pressure mounted. Confidence has dropped quickly especially after the paper market for Q2 2014 took a substantial hit. Talks that due to pressure on commodity prices the Chinese were looking to cancel a number of dry bulk COAs, quickly circulated the market, with rumors mentioning up to forty April onwards soybeans cargoes from ECSA. At the same time, the Capesize Tubarao/Qingdao and Western Australia/China routes noted a sharp fall almost immediately and the domino effect pushed the BDI down.
Currently the market is left a bit numb. The days following Wednesday saw the market noting small daily upticks across the board. It is very difficult at this stage to fully appreciate what the impact regarding Chinese growth will be. Between those who believe that the sharp fall was a correction that just didn’t materialize in a smooth manner and those who see China’s weakening growth shadowing heavily on the long awaited bright days of the dry bulk market, the truth can be most probably found somewhere in the middle. Maybe China’s economy will not grow at the estimated rate, and maybe last week’s glitch was actually a warning sign that shouldn’t be ignored, but at the same time, the fact is that rates are much healthier now than what they were a year ago, so instead of deciding whether the glass is half full or half empty, I am currently glad there is water in the glass.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 18 March 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORT VOLUME FALLS 26.23% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 17 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2 ...
Monday, 17 March 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q2 14 DELIVERIES LOST 2.59% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 2.59 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.15 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 16 March 14
BDI DOWN ON LOW CAPESIZE ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The freight market was slightly soft this week with BDI down by 4.28 pct week on week. The BDI closed at 1,477 points and the cape ...
Friday, 14 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET ENTERS RECOVERY MODE, ON INCREASED CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has entered and sustained higher ground as of this week, on the back on increased Capesize demand. Although the situation in ...
Friday, 14 March 14
US, THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST COAL PRODUCER MINED 75.3 MMST OF COAL IN FEBRUARY; DOWN 10.88% M-M
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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