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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 12 February 14
2013 WAS THE YEAR OF PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDING - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: People say that money makes the world go round. Well, can it be that it’s the other way around? Is it possible that money needs ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP SHOWS STRONG GROWTH IN 2014 SECOND HALF
COALspot.com – Swaps prices slide for thermal coal loading from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel, according SGX.
T ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIDE AROUND 15% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 10 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
SHIP OWNERS INVEST IN 447 NEWBUILDINGS AND SECOND HAND VESSELS DURING JANUARY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite a rough start to the year for the dry bulk freight market and lackluster performance from most other shipping sub-segments, ship owners have ...
Monday, 10 February 14
Q1 2015, API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AROUND $ 2 HIGHER THAN Q2 14 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 2.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 77.28 per mt as on Frid ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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