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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 12 February 14
2013 WAS THE YEAR OF PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDING - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: People say that money makes the world go round. Well, can it be that it’s the other way around? Is it possible that money needs ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP SHOWS STRONG GROWTH IN 2014 SECOND HALF
COALspot.com – Swaps prices slide for thermal coal loading from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel, according SGX.
T ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIDE AROUND 15% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 10 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
SHIP OWNERS INVEST IN 447 NEWBUILDINGS AND SECOND HAND VESSELS DURING JANUARY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite a rough start to the year for the dry bulk freight market and lackluster performance from most other shipping sub-segments, ship owners have ...
Monday, 10 February 14
Q1 2015, API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AROUND $ 2 HIGHER THAN Q2 14 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 2.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 77.28 per mt as on Frid ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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