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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Monday, 10 February 14
SUPRAMAX STILL AT AROUND US$ 5K + BB 50K DELIVERY KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO INDIA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The BDI was down by 1.71 pct and closed at 1091 points week ended 7 February 2014. The BDI seemed to reach the bottom as the cape inde ...
Saturday, 08 February 14
U.S PRODUCED 84.5 MMMST OF COAL IN JANUARY; 2.05% UP MONTH ON MONTH, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 07 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET ON ' REVERSE' MODE DUE TO CHINESE HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its uninspiring mood throughout yet another week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) hovering slightly above the 1,000-poi ...
Thursday, 06 February 14
INDONESIA'S BAN ON THE EXPORT OF RAW MINERAL ORES COMES INTO FORCE - INCE & CO
COALspot.com: On 12 January 2014, the ban on the export of unprocessed mineral ores came into effect in Indonesia. This ban enforces the Mining Law ...
Thursday, 06 February 14
THE WORLD LARGEST COAL EXPORTER SHIPPED AROUND 35.90 MMT OF COAL IN DECEMBER 2013
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the Global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $2* billion worth ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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