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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 20 February 14
SUPRAMAX: IN ASIA IS IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNED FROM APS TO DOP MARKET
Handy
The activity is back in the market after Chinese holidays. Supramax in Asia is improving significantly and turned from APS to DOP market. We ...
Wednesday, 19 February 14
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 30% MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 17 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 18 February 14
PERUVIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR MINING AFFAIRS WILL BE KEY NOTE SPEAKER AT THE COLOMBIAN COAL CONFERENCE 2014
Press Release: The High Commissioner for Mining Affairs in the Presidency of the Peruvian Council of Ministers, General (R) Daniel Urresti Elera, ha ...
Monday, 17 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION IN 2013 FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN 20 YEARS
COALspot.com: U.S coal production for 2013 totaled an estimated 996 million short tons (MMst), 21 MMst (2%) lower than in 2012. It is the first time ...
Monday, 17 February 14
Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED $ 2.21 HIGHER THAN Q2 2014 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 3.16 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.12 per mt as o ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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