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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 20 February 14
SUPRAMAX: IN ASIA IS IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNED FROM APS TO DOP MARKET
Handy
The activity is back in the market after Chinese holidays. Supramax in Asia is improving significantly and turned from APS to DOP market. We ...
Wednesday, 19 February 14
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 30% MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 17 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 18 February 14
PERUVIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR MINING AFFAIRS WILL BE KEY NOTE SPEAKER AT THE COLOMBIAN COAL CONFERENCE 2014
Press Release: The High Commissioner for Mining Affairs in the Presidency of the Peruvian Council of Ministers, General (R) Daniel Urresti Elera, ha ...
Monday, 17 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION IN 2013 FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN 20 YEARS
COALspot.com: U.S coal production for 2013 totaled an estimated 996 million short tons (MMst), 21 MMst (2%) lower than in 2012. It is the first time ...
Monday, 17 February 14
Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED $ 2.21 HIGHER THAN Q2 2014 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 3.16 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.12 per mt as o ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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