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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 20 February 14
SUPRAMAX: IN ASIA IS IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNED FROM APS TO DOP MARKET
Handy
The activity is back in the market after Chinese holidays. Supramax in Asia is improving significantly and turned from APS to DOP market. We ...
Wednesday, 19 February 14
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 30% MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 17 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 18 February 14
PERUVIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR MINING AFFAIRS WILL BE KEY NOTE SPEAKER AT THE COLOMBIAN COAL CONFERENCE 2014
Press Release: The High Commissioner for Mining Affairs in the Presidency of the Peruvian Council of Ministers, General (R) Daniel Urresti Elera, ha ...
Monday, 17 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION IN 2013 FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN 20 YEARS
COALspot.com: U.S coal production for 2013 totaled an estimated 996 million short tons (MMst), 21 MMst (2%) lower than in 2012. It is the first time ...
Monday, 17 February 14
Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED $ 2.21 HIGHER THAN Q2 2014 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 3.16 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.12 per mt as o ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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