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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 06 February 14
PANAMAX: FAR EAST IS ALMOST ABSENT AND ATLANTIC ON SLOW STEAM
Handy
Due to ongoing Chinese New Year the market is still quiet. Slowly we can see some fresh coal cargos entering the market with second half Feb/ ...
Wednesday, 05 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST FURTHER GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market has lost further ground this past week as activity ex-Far East disappeared into the Chinese holidays and owners id ...
Wednesday, 05 February 14
MARKET INSIGHT - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: Let's take a break from market prospects, numbers, order book etc. and shed some light on the conclusions of ...
Tuesday, 04 February 14
NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS HIT NEW HIGH OF 3.53 MMT
COALspot.com: In the week ended 3 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Monday, 03 February 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – Swaps prices gained for thermal coal loading from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel, according SGX.
...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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