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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Sunday, 16 February 14
SUPRAMAX : THE FAR EAST/SE ASIA CHARTER RATES FIRMED UP
COALspot.com: The freight market had a mixed reaction this week with BDI increased by 1.37 pct and closing at 1106 points on Valentine day. The cape ...
Friday, 14 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION STILL SLIPPING
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
PANAMAX : NOT ENOUGH REQUIREMENTS TO KEEP THE ATLANTIC MARKET FLOATING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
After the Chinese holidays the week started on a positive note. Owners are talking higher rates but chrtrs are still somehow reluctant to mov ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the ba ...
Wednesday, 12 February 14
NEW BUILDING ORDERS REACHING NEW POST-CRISIS HEIGHTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of the last few attractive deals in the new building market, before prices start climbing to new highs and ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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