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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Sunday, 16 February 14
SUPRAMAX : THE FAR EAST/SE ASIA CHARTER RATES FIRMED UP
COALspot.com: The freight market had a mixed reaction this week with BDI increased by 1.37 pct and closing at 1106 points on Valentine day. The cape ...
Friday, 14 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION STILL SLIPPING
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
PANAMAX : NOT ENOUGH REQUIREMENTS TO KEEP THE ATLANTIC MARKET FLOATING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
After the Chinese holidays the week started on a positive note. Owners are talking higher rates but chrtrs are still somehow reluctant to mov ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the ba ...
Wednesday, 12 February 14
NEW BUILDING ORDERS REACHING NEW POST-CRISIS HEIGHTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of the last few attractive deals in the new building market, before prices start climbing to new highs and ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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