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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Sunday, 16 February 14
SUPRAMAX : THE FAR EAST/SE ASIA CHARTER RATES FIRMED UP
COALspot.com: The freight market had a mixed reaction this week with BDI increased by 1.37 pct and closing at 1106 points on Valentine day. The cape ...
Friday, 14 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION STILL SLIPPING
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
PANAMAX : NOT ENOUGH REQUIREMENTS TO KEEP THE ATLANTIC MARKET FLOATING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
After the Chinese holidays the week started on a positive note. Owners are talking higher rates but chrtrs are still somehow reluctant to mov ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the ba ...
Wednesday, 12 February 14
NEW BUILDING ORDERS REACHING NEW POST-CRISIS HEIGHTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of the last few attractive deals in the new building market, before prices start climbing to new highs and ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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