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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Saturday, 22 February 14
POTEN RAISES THE QUESTION OF ACCURACY IN CALCULATING TANKER FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the tanker market has grown in complexity over the course of the past few years, the question of whether the traditional methods of assessing rat ...
Friday, 21 February 14
INDONESIA PLAN TO CAP COAL OUTPUT AND HIKE ROYALTY; START MUSIC
COALspot.com: Energy and Mineral Resources Ministy of Indonesia is planning to increase the royalty for coal miners particularly for Mining Business ...
Friday, 21 February 14
THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST COAL MINER MINED 19.2 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, mined approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a w ...
Friday, 21 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWS SIGNS OF LIFE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has slowly started to emerge from the downfall it's been since the start of the year, as rates have began to pick up over the c ...
Friday, 21 February 14
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT CAP TO HURT MINERS RELIANT ON VOLUME GROWTH, FITCH SAYS
Fitch Ratings says that the credit profiles of mining sub-contractors and miners highly reliant on increasing volumes to support high debt servicing w ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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