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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Saturday, 22 February 14
POTEN RAISES THE QUESTION OF ACCURACY IN CALCULATING TANKER FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the tanker market has grown in complexity over the course of the past few years, the question of whether the traditional methods of assessing rat ...
Friday, 21 February 14
INDONESIA PLAN TO CAP COAL OUTPUT AND HIKE ROYALTY; START MUSIC
COALspot.com: Energy and Mineral Resources Ministy of Indonesia is planning to increase the royalty for coal miners particularly for Mining Business ...
Friday, 21 February 14
THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST COAL MINER MINED 19.2 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, mined approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a w ...
Friday, 21 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWS SIGNS OF LIFE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has slowly started to emerge from the downfall it's been since the start of the year, as rates have began to pick up over the c ...
Friday, 21 February 14
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT CAP TO HURT MINERS RELIANT ON VOLUME GROWTH, FITCH SAYS
Fitch Ratings says that the credit profiles of mining sub-contractors and miners highly reliant on increasing volumes to support high debt servicing w ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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