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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 25 February 14
SGX'S MONTHLY VOLUMES DRASTICALLY INCREASED AND REACHED A RECORD OF 810K TONNES YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: SGX Thermal Coal derivatives started the new year with record volumes in January on the back of higher volatility, says SGX.
Accord ...
Monday, 24 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with slo ...
Monday, 24 February 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY APRIL - JUNE 2014 SLIDES TO $ 58.60 PMT
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s the largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 slide week ended ...
Monday, 24 February 14
Q1 2015 DELIVERY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT 2.62% HIGHER THAN Q2 2014 CLOSING SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 2.68 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.20 per mt as on Fr ...
Saturday, 22 February 14
SHIPPING POISED TO RALLY AFTER SEVERAL WEEKS OF DROP
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady to firm with the dry bulk index up by 6.24 pct closing at 1,175 points week on week and the cape index w ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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