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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 25 February 14
SGX'S MONTHLY VOLUMES DRASTICALLY INCREASED AND REACHED A RECORD OF 810K TONNES YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: SGX Thermal Coal derivatives started the new year with record volumes in January on the back of higher volatility, says SGX.
Accord ...
Monday, 24 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with slo ...
Monday, 24 February 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY APRIL - JUNE 2014 SLIDES TO $ 58.60 PMT
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s the largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 slide week ended ...
Monday, 24 February 14
Q1 2015 DELIVERY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT 2.62% HIGHER THAN Q2 2014 CLOSING SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 2.68 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.20 per mt as on Fr ...
Saturday, 22 February 14
SHIPPING POISED TO RALLY AFTER SEVERAL WEEKS OF DROP
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady to firm with the dry bulk index up by 6.24 pct closing at 1,175 points week on week and the cape index w ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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