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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 27 February 14
SHIPPING LOANS WORTH $5 BILLION HAVE CHANGED HANDS OVER THE PAST YEAR, AS FUNDS INVEST IN SHIPPING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Funds investing in shipping has been the "talk of the town" over the past couple of years, as institutional investors, private equity and ...
Thursday, 27 February 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIP 26.68 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 24 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2. ...
Wednesday, 26 February 14
SMALLER SIZE SEGMENTS HOLDING ON TO THEIR LEVELS; CAPES CORRECTING UPWARDS - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable+)
The Dry Bulk market continued to improve this past week, on the back of rates for the smaller size s ...
Tuesday, 25 February 14
GBCE, A COAL UPGRADING TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPER, APPOINTS RICHARD BULMAN AS PROJECT DIRECTOR
Press Release: GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) announced today the appointment of Richard Bulman as Project Director. In this capacity Mr. Bulman ...
Tuesday, 25 February 14
ULTRAMAXES ARE THE 'WEAPON OF CHOICE' FOR DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's been a busy start in 2014, as the first month of the year was a rather active in terms of second hand vessel purchases and newbuilding orderin ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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