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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 30 November 13
NTPC STARTED IMPORTING COAL THROUGH NW1 FOR ITS FARAKKA POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: In a pioneering and path breaking operation, the very first consignment of about 69,060 metric tons of imported coal bought by MV HUAY ...
Friday, 29 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET BACK ON HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is strengthening as a result of higher demand for Capesize vessels. The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up by 146 points yesterday, e ...
Wednesday, 27 November 13
DRY SEGMENTS EXCEPTION OF PANAMAXES, REMAINED OVERALL STABLE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : The Dry Bulk market closed off the week in the red, albeit the decrease noted was of short scale. With the exception of Panamaxes, th ...
Wednesday, 27 November 13
US WHEAT IMPORTS TO BRAZIL, REACHED A 35 - YEAR HIGH - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: As I am going through a number of dry market fixtures reported since the beginning of October, my eyes instinctively stop where they d ...
Wednesday, 27 November 13
SHIP OWNERS ONCE AGAIN TURN TO DRY BULK CARRIERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners once again turned to more dry bulk carrier ordering over the course of the past week, as more and more appear convinced of the industry ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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