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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 26 November 13
EWP INVITES COAL BIDS FOR 2014 - 2018 DELIVERIES
COALspot.com: Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) invited bids to supply 130,000MT of min 5,600kcal/kg (Sub)-bituminous Coal on NCV basis for March ...
Tuesday, 26 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIP 22.62% W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 25, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.26 ...
Monday, 25 November 13
THE SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP MOVEMENT IN YEAR 2014 IS STILL FAR FROM PROMISING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 2.54 pmt month on month on Friday 22 Novemb ...
Sunday, 24 November 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY PRICE SHOWS A NEGATIVE TREND WEEK ON WEEK AND FLAT ON D-D
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.13 percept d-d on Friday 22 November 2013. The CFR South ...
Sunday, 24 November 13
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES REMAINED FIRM FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA AND CHINA - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady except for the Supramax in SE Asia region which continued to remain firm. The BDI was down by 1.5 ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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