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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 04 December 13
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS VOLUME AND REVENUE IN OCTOBER MARCHED TOWARDS NORTH
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's 4th largest coal producer and the largest multi grade coal exporter shipped over $1.76* billion worth of ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
WEST AUSTRALIA IRON ORE FIXTURES ALSO CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A STEADY FLOW OF BUSINESS FOR CAPES - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has reversed course this past week, bringing back some of the lost excitement of the past month, as all size segments climbed hi ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
THE BUYERS' DEMAND IS CONTINUOUSLY BULLISH - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The very low rates that prevailed for the bigger part of 2013 seem to have prepared the ground for buying opportunities for shipping investors. The ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
SGX AND CFA TO COLLABORATE TO DEVELOP DERIVATIVES MARKETS IN CHINA AND SINGAPORE
Singapore Exchange (SGX) and the China Futures Association (CFA) are cooperating in the development of derivatives markets in China and Singapore.
...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
SGX'S MONTHLY VOLUMES REACHED A RECORD HIGH OF 705,000 MT IN NOVEMBER 2013
COALspot.com: SGX has announced that, it monthly volumes have reached a record high of 705 lots (705,000 mt) in November 2013 with month-end open in ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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