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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 04 December 13
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS VOLUME AND REVENUE IN OCTOBER MARCHED TOWARDS NORTH
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's 4th largest coal producer and the largest multi grade coal exporter shipped over $1.76* billion worth of ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
WEST AUSTRALIA IRON ORE FIXTURES ALSO CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A STEADY FLOW OF BUSINESS FOR CAPES - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has reversed course this past week, bringing back some of the lost excitement of the past month, as all size segments climbed hi ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
THE BUYERS' DEMAND IS CONTINUOUSLY BULLISH - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The very low rates that prevailed for the bigger part of 2013 seem to have prepared the ground for buying opportunities for shipping investors. The ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
SGX AND CFA TO COLLABORATE TO DEVELOP DERIVATIVES MARKETS IN CHINA AND SINGAPORE
Singapore Exchange (SGX) and the China Futures Association (CFA) are cooperating in the development of derivatives markets in China and Singapore.
...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
SGX'S MONTHLY VOLUMES REACHED A RECORD HIGH OF 705,000 MT IN NOVEMBER 2013
COALspot.com: SGX has announced that, it monthly volumes have reached a record high of 705 lots (705,000 mt) in November 2013 with month-end open in ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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