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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 03 December 13
PORT OF NEWCASTLE IN QUEENSLAND SHIPPED 1.22 MMT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 2, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.49 ...
Tuesday, 03 December 13
U.S PRODUCED 900.80 MMST YEAR-TO-DATE
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Monday, 02 December 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN Q1 AND Q3 DELIVERIES ARE VERY MARGINAL
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.67 pmt month on month on Friday 29 Novemb ...
Sunday, 01 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERY SHOWS A DECLINE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.63 percept d-d on Friday 29 November 2013. The CFR South ...
Sunday, 01 December 13
PANAMAX RATES HAVE REBOUNDED - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market was quite firm last week with all the indices increased. Cape Index was gained highest this week which supports inc ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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