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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 22 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LACKLUSTRE, DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF A NEW RALLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
We might still be about six weeks far from the end of the year, but the projected by many analysts upcoming rally of the dry bulk market, hasn't ye ...
Friday, 22 November 13
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 1.3% W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 21 November 13
TAIPOWER TO PROCURE 750K MT OF 5500 GAR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR MAY - AUGUST 2014
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 750,000 metric tons of bituminous coal with calorific value not lesser than 5,500 kcal/kg on a ...
Thursday, 21 November 13
CAPESIZE : THE DOWNWARD TREND HAS TURNED INTO NOTABLE SPOT AND PERIOD IMPROVEMENT - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic market experienced a general rate increase for most trades this week. More cargoes in the market and chrts looking for prompt t ...
Wednesday, 20 November 13
PANAMAX MARKET RESUMED ITS NEGATIVE MOVEMENT FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The recovery noted the week prior in the dry Bulk market proved to be short-lived, as the BDI slipped back down to the low 1,500 point ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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