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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 06 December 13
INDONESIAN PARLIAMENT REJECTED A GOVERNMENT PROPOSAL TO EASE THE BAN ON EXPORTING UNPROCESSED ORE
COALspot.com: Indonesian House of Representatives rejected a proposal from Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik on to ease the ban on ex ...
Friday, 06 December 13
THE MINISTRY OF ENERGY & MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA FIXED DEC'13 HBA AT US$ 80.31
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has increased government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 2.18 / MT ...
Friday, 06 December 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 82.8 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN NOVEMBER 2013
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.00 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 06 December 13
PANAMAXES HAVE BEEN THE ' WEAPON OF CHOICE' BY MOST DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Low ship prices, the direct consequence of subdued freight rates for the larger part of 2013 have been the main driving force behind this year's ag ...
Thursday, 05 December 13
PANAMAX : THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
It has been an active week for the Supramax and Handysize segment. USG is almost boiling and charterers looking to cover their December stems ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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