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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 09 December 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.57 LESSER THAN Q1 CLOSING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.49 pmt month on month on Friday 6 Decembe ...
Sunday, 08 December 13
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SHOW A DECLINE TREND IN Q2 & Q3' 14
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 6.76 percept month on month as on Friday 6 December 2013. T ...
Sunday, 08 December 13
RBCT SHIPPED 63.446 MMT OF COALS YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 63,446,232 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Saturday, 07 December 13
SUPRAMAX SHIPS FOR EC INDIA TO CHINA ROUTE BEING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 13K - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be firm due to high Iron ore demand. The cape index was up by almost 25 pct this week. The grain seaso ...
Saturday, 07 December 13
A RARE TIME IN RECENT SHIPPING MARKET HISTORY: BOTH DRY BULK AND VLCC TANKER EARNINGS ARE ON THE RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Around this time of year, back in 2008, i.e. five years ago, the shipping markets were plagued with the aftermath of the global financial crisis tha ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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