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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 09 December 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.57 LESSER THAN Q1 CLOSING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.49 pmt month on month on Friday 6 Decembe ...
Sunday, 08 December 13
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SHOW A DECLINE TREND IN Q2 & Q3' 14
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 6.76 percept month on month as on Friday 6 December 2013. T ...
Sunday, 08 December 13
RBCT SHIPPED 63.446 MMT OF COALS YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 63,446,232 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Saturday, 07 December 13
SUPRAMAX SHIPS FOR EC INDIA TO CHINA ROUTE BEING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 13K - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be firm due to high Iron ore demand. The cape index was up by almost 25 pct this week. The grain seaso ...
Saturday, 07 December 13
A RARE TIME IN RECENT SHIPPING MARKET HISTORY: BOTH DRY BULK AND VLCC TANKER EARNINGS ARE ON THE RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Around this time of year, back in 2008, i.e. five years ago, the shipping markets were plagued with the aftermath of the global financial crisis tha ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
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