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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 December 13
BDI REACHED A PEAK OF YEAR RECORD OF 2,237 POINTS WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MARKET CONDITIONS
Getting closer to the end of 2013, it is important that we have a review of the course the market has taken these past 12 months by looking at the B ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
HNL, AN INDIAN STATE-OWNED NEWSPRINT PAPER MAKER SEEKS 50K TONS OF INDONESIAN 5600 COAL
COALspot.com: Hindustan Newsprint limited (HNL), an Indian state owned news print paper producer invited bids to supply 50,000MT of min 5,200kcal/kg ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
COLOMBIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS SLIPPED 25.54% M-M IN OCTOBER'13
COALspot.com: Colombia's Thermal coal exports in October dropped 25.54% month on month to 5,990,815.13 million mt, according to data from mining de ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE W-O-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 9, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.50 ...
Monday, 09 December 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL EXPORTS IN NOVEMBER DECLINED 14.43% M-M
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay coal terminal exported 6.224 million tonnes of coal in November, declining by 1.05 million tons from the ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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