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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 December 13
BDI REACHED A PEAK OF YEAR RECORD OF 2,237 POINTS WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MARKET CONDITIONS
Getting closer to the end of 2013, it is important that we have a review of the course the market has taken these past 12 months by looking at the B ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
HNL, AN INDIAN STATE-OWNED NEWSPRINT PAPER MAKER SEEKS 50K TONS OF INDONESIAN 5600 COAL
COALspot.com: Hindustan Newsprint limited (HNL), an Indian state owned news print paper producer invited bids to supply 50,000MT of min 5,200kcal/kg ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
COLOMBIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS SLIPPED 25.54% M-M IN OCTOBER'13
COALspot.com: Colombia's Thermal coal exports in October dropped 25.54% month on month to 5,990,815.13 million mt, according to data from mining de ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE W-O-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 9, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.50 ...
Monday, 09 December 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL EXPORTS IN NOVEMBER DECLINED 14.43% M-M
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay coal terminal exported 6.224 million tonnes of coal in November, declining by 1.05 million tons from the ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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