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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK impor ...
Friday, 13 December 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS HEALTHY DEMAND MOVING FORWARD - ICS
The Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers Greek Branch organised its 9th Annual Forum at Eugenides Foundation, on Wednesday, 11th of December, with a r ...
Friday, 13 December 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 18.4 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL W/E 7 DECEMBER 2013
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 12 December 13
GREAT EXPECTATIONS SANCTIONED - EVA TZIMA
News that sanctions on Iranian oil exports could be lifted sometime in the following months have shaken the markets recently. One of the world&rsquo ...
Wednesday, 11 December 13
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING SETTING A REGULATION ON THE MINIMUM PURITY TO REGULATE UNPROCESSED ORE BAN
COALspot.com: Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik recently proposed to house those mining (mineral) companies that had shown a commitme ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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