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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK impor ...
Friday, 13 December 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS HEALTHY DEMAND MOVING FORWARD - ICS
The Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers Greek Branch organised its 9th Annual Forum at Eugenides Foundation, on Wednesday, 11th of December, with a r ...
Friday, 13 December 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 18.4 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL W/E 7 DECEMBER 2013
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 12 December 13
GREAT EXPECTATIONS SANCTIONED - EVA TZIMA
News that sanctions on Iranian oil exports could be lifted sometime in the following months have shaken the markets recently. One of the world&rsquo ...
Wednesday, 11 December 13
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING SETTING A REGULATION ON THE MINIMUM PURITY TO REGULATE UNPROCESSED ORE BAN
COALspot.com: Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik recently proposed to house those mining (mineral) companies that had shown a commitme ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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