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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 18 December 13
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SCALED BACK AS FREIGHT RATES RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's always been the case that each time we witness a spike in freight rates, demolition activity is decreasing, as owners are looking for more car ...
Tuesday, 17 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS UP 37.83% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 16, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.45 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST $ 0.53 IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 0.91 pmt month on month on Friday 13 December 2013 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3' 14 DELIVERY PRICE CLOSED $1.63 LESSER THAN Q1' 14 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 5.34 percept month on month as on Friday 13 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 15 December 13
SUPRAMAX'S FREIGHT RALLY COMES TO AN END THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 7 pct closing at 2,330 points week on week and the cape index was also up by 10.51 points and closed at 4,246 points ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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