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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 18 December 13
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SCALED BACK AS FREIGHT RATES RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's always been the case that each time we witness a spike in freight rates, demolition activity is decreasing, as owners are looking for more car ...
Tuesday, 17 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS UP 37.83% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 16, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.45 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST $ 0.53 IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 0.91 pmt month on month on Friday 13 December 2013 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3' 14 DELIVERY PRICE CLOSED $1.63 LESSER THAN Q1' 14 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 5.34 percept month on month as on Friday 13 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 15 December 13
SUPRAMAX'S FREIGHT RALLY COMES TO AN END THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 7 pct closing at 2,330 points week on week and the cape index was also up by 10.51 points and closed at 4,246 points ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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