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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 22 December 13
QUIET FREIGHT MARKET DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com: The market was soft this week with all indices down. However towards second half of the week the futures on segments was firming up.
...
Friday, 20 December 13
US PRODUCED 2.71% MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 20 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET SLUMPS AHEAD OF HOLIDAY SEASON - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As has been the case in recent years, the dry bulk market has been on a downward trend ahead of the Holiday Season for a large part of the world. Th ...
Thursday, 19 December 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE HITS THREE-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for more than three years over the three-month period to November 201 ...
Wednesday, 18 December 13
SNP ACTIVITY IN CHINA SEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN - CHRISTOS TRAGEAS
Approaching the end of the year, SnP activity in China seems to be slowing down in comparison to the first half of this quarter, as most Chinese Shi ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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