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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 22 December 13
QUIET FREIGHT MARKET DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com: The market was soft this week with all indices down. However towards second half of the week the futures on segments was firming up.
...
Friday, 20 December 13
US PRODUCED 2.71% MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 20 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET SLUMPS AHEAD OF HOLIDAY SEASON - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As has been the case in recent years, the dry bulk market has been on a downward trend ahead of the Holiday Season for a large part of the world. Th ...
Thursday, 19 December 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE HITS THREE-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for more than three years over the three-month period to November 201 ...
Wednesday, 18 December 13
SNP ACTIVITY IN CHINA SEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN - CHRISTOS TRAGEAS
Approaching the end of the year, SnP activity in China seems to be slowing down in comparison to the first half of this quarter, as most Chinese Shi ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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