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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 25 December 13
SHIPPING : AS FAR AS THIS CYCLE IS CONCERNED, 'WE HAVE SEEN THE WORST....!' - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In a week’s time the year comes to an end. Having been a speaker in two seminars over the past 5 days I was able to see the year ending trends ...
Tuesday, 24 December 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS UP 11.46% W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 23, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.84 ...
Tuesday, 24 December 13
SGX HAS LAUNCHED FREIGHT FUTURES
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (SGX) has announced the launch of freight future yesterday.
According to SGX’s press release, SGX has laun ...
Monday, 23 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR AVERAGE Q1' 14 CLOSED AT $ 82.80
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 2.97 percept month on month as on Friday 20 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 22 December 13
Q1' 14 DELIVERY COAL SWAPS CLOSING HIGH COMPARED TO Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.31 pmt month on month on Friday 20 December 2013 ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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