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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 25 December 13
SHIPPING : AS FAR AS THIS CYCLE IS CONCERNED, 'WE HAVE SEEN THE WORST....!' - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In a week’s time the year comes to an end. Having been a speaker in two seminars over the past 5 days I was able to see the year ending trends ...
Tuesday, 24 December 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS UP 11.46% W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 23, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.84 ...
Tuesday, 24 December 13
SGX HAS LAUNCHED FREIGHT FUTURES
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (SGX) has announced the launch of freight future yesterday.
According to SGX’s press release, SGX has laun ...
Monday, 23 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR AVERAGE Q1' 14 CLOSED AT $ 82.80
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 2.97 percept month on month as on Friday 20 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 22 December 13
Q1' 14 DELIVERY COAL SWAPS CLOSING HIGH COMPARED TO Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.31 pmt month on month on Friday 20 December 2013 ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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