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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 30 December 13
INDONESIAN COAL TO BE PART OF INDEX DETERMINING POWER TARIFFS - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a significant move, power sector regulator CERC has decided to provide 50 per cent weightage for Indonesian coal in the benchmark index that is u ...
Friday, 27 December 13
THE EXPORT OF UNPROCESSED MINERALS WOULD NOT BE ALLOWED AFTER 12 JAN 2014 - INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER
COALspot.com: The government of Indonesia will implement Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal in full and consistently by January 12, 2014, said, m ...
Friday, 27 December 13
INDONESIA SHIPPED 15.75 PERCENT MORE COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's 4th largest coal producer and the largest multi grade coal exporter shipped over $2* billion worth of co ...
Thursday, 26 December 13
COAL & OIL GROUP SECURES US$ 250 MILLION FUNDING FOR ITS 1200MW THERMAL POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Dubai-based Coal & Oil (C&O) Group has announced that it has secured additional funding of approximately Dhs. 1 billion (appro ...
Wednesday, 25 December 13
DRY BULK INDEX LOST SOME GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Softer - )
The Dry Bulk Index lost some ground this past week, on the back of activity slowing down befor ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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