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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 30 December 13
INDONESIAN COAL TO BE PART OF INDEX DETERMINING POWER TARIFFS - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a significant move, power sector regulator CERC has decided to provide 50 per cent weightage for Indonesian coal in the benchmark index that is u ...
Friday, 27 December 13
THE EXPORT OF UNPROCESSED MINERALS WOULD NOT BE ALLOWED AFTER 12 JAN 2014 - INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER
COALspot.com: The government of Indonesia will implement Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal in full and consistently by January 12, 2014, said, m ...
Friday, 27 December 13
INDONESIA SHIPPED 15.75 PERCENT MORE COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's 4th largest coal producer and the largest multi grade coal exporter shipped over $2* billion worth of co ...
Thursday, 26 December 13
COAL & OIL GROUP SECURES US$ 250 MILLION FUNDING FOR ITS 1200MW THERMAL POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Dubai-based Coal & Oil (C&O) Group has announced that it has secured additional funding of approximately Dhs. 1 billion (appro ...
Wednesday, 25 December 13
DRY BULK INDEX LOST SOME GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Softer - )
The Dry Bulk Index lost some ground this past week, on the back of activity slowing down befor ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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