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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 01 January 14
COAL & OIL TO SET UP ANOTHER 1,600 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA - VENKATARAMANI
COALspot.com: Dubai-based Coal & Oil (C&O) Group is planning to make additional investment of around US$ 1.61 billion to set up 1,600 mega w ...
Wednesday, 01 January 14
DRY BULK CARRIER OWNERS ANTICIPATING AN EVEN STRONGER 2014 YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
To begin with, The Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team would like to wish you all a Happy and Prosperous 2014! We begin the New Year with our firs ...
Tuesday, 31 December 13
INDONESIA'S COAL PRODUCTION COULD HIT 450 MMT IN 2014 - ICMA
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the fourth largest coal producer and largest coal exporter in the world, to increase coal output in year 2014 instead of th ...
Tuesday, 31 December 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Tuesday, 31 December 13
MORE THAN $21 BILLION INVESTED IN SECOND HAND SHIP PURCHASES IN 2013
One thing that was apparent in the sale and purchasing markets during 2013 was the ship owners' larger appetite for vessel acquisitions, as most so ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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