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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 01 January 14
COAL & OIL TO SET UP ANOTHER 1,600 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA - VENKATARAMANI
COALspot.com: Dubai-based Coal & Oil (C&O) Group is planning to make additional investment of around US$ 1.61 billion to set up 1,600 mega w ...
Wednesday, 01 January 14
DRY BULK CARRIER OWNERS ANTICIPATING AN EVEN STRONGER 2014 YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
To begin with, The Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team would like to wish you all a Happy and Prosperous 2014! We begin the New Year with our firs ...
Tuesday, 31 December 13
INDONESIA'S COAL PRODUCTION COULD HIT 450 MMT IN 2014 - ICMA
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the fourth largest coal producer and largest coal exporter in the world, to increase coal output in year 2014 instead of th ...
Tuesday, 31 December 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Tuesday, 31 December 13
MORE THAN $21 BILLION INVESTED IN SECOND HAND SHIP PURCHASES IN 2013
One thing that was apparent in the sale and purchasing markets during 2013 was the ship owners' larger appetite for vessel acquisitions, as most so ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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