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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 06 January 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS SLIDE TO $ 61.25 FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 0.32 pmt month on month on Friday 3 January 2014. Th ...
Sunday, 05 January 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 80.05, A $ 0.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 1.40 percept day on day closed at US$ 80.95 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 05 January 14
CENTRAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION OF INDIA REGISTERS CASES IN CONNECTION WITH ALLEGED SUPPLY OF LOW QUALITY INDONESIAN COAL BY A PRIVATE COMPANY TO NTPC & NSPCL
COALspot.com: The Central Bureau of Investigation of India has registered two cases regarding alleged supply of low quality imported Indonesian coal ...
Saturday, 04 January 14
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT TO DOWNSIZE ITS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET TO 400 MMT THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesia to downsize its coal production target to 400 million tons in 2014, lower than the production in 2013, which stood at 421 mi ...
Friday, 03 January 14
IN 2013 RBCT HAS, FOR THE FIRST TIME, EXPORTED MORE THAN 70 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay coal terminal, the world’s largest single coal exporting terminal shipped 6.788 million tonnes of c ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
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