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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 08 January 14
SHIPPING: THE ABSOLUTE BOTTOM OF THE CYCLE WAS REACHED AND PASSED - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
COALspot.com: To many in the industry 2013 has been the turning point in the market where the absolute bottom of the cycle was reached and passed.
...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
INDONESIA RAISES COAL PRICE THIS MONTH
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has increased government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 1.59 / MT ...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
NEWCASTLE COAL TERMINAL'S COAL EXPORTS SLIDE TO 3.54 MMT W/E 30 DECEMBER 13
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 30, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.54 ...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
US COAL OUTPUT SLIDES 9 PCT WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Monday, 06 January 14
ARGUS LAUNCHES SPOT CFR EAST COAST INDIA COAL ASSESSMENTS
COALspot.com: Global energy and commodity news and price reporting agency Argus has announced today that, the company has launched CFR coal assessme ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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