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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 08 January 14
SHIPPING: THE ABSOLUTE BOTTOM OF THE CYCLE WAS REACHED AND PASSED - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
COALspot.com: To many in the industry 2013 has been the turning point in the market where the absolute bottom of the cycle was reached and passed.
...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
INDONESIA RAISES COAL PRICE THIS MONTH
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has increased government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 1.59 / MT ...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
NEWCASTLE COAL TERMINAL'S COAL EXPORTS SLIDE TO 3.54 MMT W/E 30 DECEMBER 13
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 30, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.54 ...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
US COAL OUTPUT SLIDES 9 PCT WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Monday, 06 January 14
ARGUS LAUNCHES SPOT CFR EAST COAST INDIA COAL ASSESSMENTS
COALspot.com: Global energy and commodity news and price reporting agency Argus has announced today that, the company has launched CFR coal assessme ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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