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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 09 January 14
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA FREIGHT IS NOW DOWN IN THE $8S AND STILL DROPPING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
In the Atlantic we see rates sliding slowly for the start of 2014. Several players cvrd over the holidays and the rate decline was som ...
Thursday, 09 January 14
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2013 AND LOOKING FORWARD GLOBAL ECONOMY: STEADY AS SHE GOES UPWARDS - BIMCO
Over the past year, developed economies have gained traction while developing and emerging economies have suffered from slower growth. Despite key e ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS LOOKING BRIGHTER DESPITE SLOW START TO THE NEW YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI has been on a fall since the start of 2014, ending yesterday's session down to 1,87 ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FALL
COALspot.com: In the week ended January 6, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.27 m ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST SOME OF ITS STEAM THESE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS: INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Softer- / Dry: Softer- )
The Dry Bulk market has lost some of its steam these past couple of days although hires, espe ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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