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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 09 January 14
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA FREIGHT IS NOW DOWN IN THE $8S AND STILL DROPPING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
In the Atlantic we see rates sliding slowly for the start of 2014. Several players cvrd over the holidays and the rate decline was som ...
Thursday, 09 January 14
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2013 AND LOOKING FORWARD GLOBAL ECONOMY: STEADY AS SHE GOES UPWARDS - BIMCO
Over the past year, developed economies have gained traction while developing and emerging economies have suffered from slower growth. Despite key e ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS LOOKING BRIGHTER DESPITE SLOW START TO THE NEW YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI has been on a fall since the start of 2014, ending yesterday's session down to 1,87 ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FALL
COALspot.com: In the week ended January 6, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.27 m ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST SOME OF ITS STEAM THESE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS: INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Softer- / Dry: Softer- )
The Dry Bulk market has lost some of its steam these past couple of days although hires, espe ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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