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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 02 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.61 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,533,183 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 31 December 2012, Newc ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six ...
Monday, 31 December 12
KOSEP IS LOOKING FOR 280K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR APRIL - JUNE 2013
COALspot.com : South Korean state-owned utility Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOSEP), has issued an new tender for prompt supply of 280,00 ...
Monday, 31 December 12
VALE CELEBRATES ARRIVAL OF "VALE SOHAR" BULK CARRIER TO SULTANATE WITH MEMBERS OF COMMUNITY
'Vale Sohar', one of the largest bulk carriers in the world, was welcomed to Oman by members of the North Al Batinah community headed by H.E. Shei ...
Monday, 31 December 12
"DISTRESSED", "ECO" AND "FINANCE" ARE THE THREE WORDS WHICH CHARACTERIZED 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2012 was yet another year of speculation, anticipation, pessimism and more speculation in the shipping markets. According to the latest weekly repor ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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