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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 05 January 13
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2012 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global Economy: Things will go up from here
The global economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than previous years. The slower economic ...
Friday, 04 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR DIRECTION IN FIRST TRADING DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is actively looking for its footing at the start of the New Year, as charters have been scarce, as is usually the case during th ...
Thursday, 03 January 13
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS CLOSED US$ 6.86 HIGHER FOR 2014 DELIVERY
COALspot.com - Swaps prices were changed positively for thermal coal for loading in the first quarter from Indonesia, according to SGX AsiaClear OTC ...
Thursday, 03 January 13
SUPRMAX FREIGHT RATE FROM RED SEA / INDIA IS AROUND MID TEENS - FEARNLEYS
Fearnleys in its weekly report said that, Indian market was very quiet in respect of export of iron ore. For Indo-India trip Supra rate was hovering ...
Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mai ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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