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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 29 December 12
SHIPBREAKING YARDS IN INDIA DEMOLISH A TOTAL OF 527 VESSELS IN 2012, BREAKING ALL PREVIOUS RECORDS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
India's ship demolition experts of Star Matrix contemplated this week on the issue of why ships in the range of 1,000 and up to 6,500 liquid tons ( ...
Thursday, 27 December 12
A LOOK AT WORLD TRADE PATTERNS DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
While China's leaders are likely to stick with the 2012 economic growth rate of 7.5% when they chart a course for 2013 - its weakest pace since 199 ...
Thursday, 27 December 12
INDONESIA SHIPPED 33.578* MMT COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter has shipped 33.578* million tons of coal in November 2012. thi ...
Wednesday, 26 December 12
UPDATE ON EXPORT BAN ON RAW MINERALS AND ORE - RITA SUSANTO
COALspot.com - In May 2012, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (“MoEMR”) in Regulation No.7 (“Reg-7”, amended by R ...
Wednesday, 26 December 12
SHIP OWNERS WRAP UP NEWBUILDING DEALS PRIOR TO YEAR END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the year inches closer and closer to its end, many ship owners are looking to close deals for newbuilding vessels they have been negotiating duri ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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