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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 December 12
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECISION MAY FURTHER DELAY THE ISSUANCE OF NEW MINING BUSINESS LICENCES - TJEN SHE SIUNG
COALspot.com - In November 2012 the Constitutional Court of Indonesia issued a decision on amendments to certain provisions under the Mining Law No. ...
Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as thi ...
Sunday, 23 December 12
Q4' 2013 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP, US$ 3.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2013 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 1.94 percent M-M and WoW by 1.57percent but lost 0.35 ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
SECOND HAND VESSELS ENJOY HIGH DEMAND AS PRICES ARE ATTRACTIVE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the year is closing to its end, activity in the second hand vessel market has been more than high. Ship owners are looking to ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
FALL IN CAPE AND PANAMAX RATES DRAG BDI INDEX - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week closing at 700 points (down by 10.71 pct). The cape index continued to fall and w ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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