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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 January 13
HOLIDAY ACTIVITY SCARCE IN THE MARKET OF SECOND HAND VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although the market for second hand vessel purchasing was quite lull during the Holiday period, as is usually the case, the first days of the New Ye ...
Tuesday, 08 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3.197 MILLION MT OF COAL W/E 7 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,197,580 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 7 January 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 06 January 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: 2014 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 6.80 HIGHER THAN Q1 '13 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.37 percent WoW and CFR South China coal sh ...
Sunday, 06 January 13
COAL BOOM: WAKE-UP CALL FOR INDIA & INDONESIA! - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Coal Boom : Scenario, Now & later!
Coal has been the dominant fuel for power generating plants in developed countries since th ...
Sunday, 06 January 13
FREIGHT MARKET REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
WISH YOU ALL HAPPY NEW YEAR
COALspot.com - The freight market remained fairly steady in spite of Christmas / New Year Holidays. The BDI was almos ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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