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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 12 January 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEAK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.32 percent WoW but CFR South China coal ship ...
Saturday, 12 January 13
HIGHER COAL PRICES: SEASONAL EFFECT
COALspot.com : Bahana Securities, one of the leading securities in Indonesia, said in its latest coal outlook that, on US and China&rsquo ...
Friday, 11 January 13
HBA HAS JUMPED BY US$ 5.80 PMT IN JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal higher than December price. The monthly coal reference price f ...
Thursday, 10 January 13
PANAMAX : SOME GLIMMERS OF HOPE MID WEEK - FEARNLEYS
According to Fearnley’s weekly report, the Atlantic handy market is stable with rates around USD 11k for Cont-Feast and USD 17k bss USG/Feast. ...
Thursday, 10 January 13
DRY BULK PANAMAX MARKET HEAVILY OVERSUPPLIED, UNLIKELY TO FIND SUPPORT IN 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite positive indication for a significant surge of dry bulk demand this year, the oversupply problems of the market, will continue to weigh heav ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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