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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 January 13
2ND MYANMAR MINING SUMMIT & OFFICIAL HOST MINISTRY OF MINES TO WELCOME OVER 200 DELEGATES NEXT WEEK
Press Release: The Ministry of Mines is hosting the 2nd Myanmar Mining Summit in Yangon on 21-24 January to unravel the local mining climate, prospe ...
Monday, 14 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.32 PERCENT LESS COAL W/E 14 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,123,312 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 14 January 2013, Newca ...
Monday, 14 January 13
THE COAL MONGOLIA - 2013 OFFICIALLY IN COOPERATION WITH TOP MINING COMPANIES
Press Release: Mongolian first mining portal site Mining.mn has already started its preparation of the International Conference “COAL MONGOLIA ...
Monday, 14 January 13
NTPC INVITES BIDS FOR 500K MT OF IMPORTED COAL
COALspot.com - NTPC Limited (formerly National Thermal Power Corporation) is the largest Indian state-owned electric utilities company called for a ...
Sunday, 13 January 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET: FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with all the indices up with maximum gain in the Panamax segment. The BDI was up by 7.65 pct clo ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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