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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 20 January 13
S7 & S8 ROUTE FREIGHT TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with all the indices BDI up by 9.21 pct closing at 837 points. The Cape index was also sharply u ...
Friday, 18 January 13
NEWLEAD HOLDINGS LTD. TO ACQUIRE TWO COAL PROPERTIES WITH ESTIMATED COAL RESERVES OF 18.6 MMT & 143.1 MMT
NewLead Holdings Ltd. Announces Signing Agreement to Acquire Properties with Estimated Coal Reserves of 18.6 Million Tons; Signing Agreement to Acqu ...
Friday, 18 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE, ON STRONG DEMAND FOR CAPESIZE VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has continued its climbing trend yesterday, as the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was up by 39 points to 820. ...
Friday, 18 January 13
CAPESIZE : SIGNALS ARE MIXED BUT THE OVERALL TENDENCY IS POSITIVE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic market remained stable with USG-Feast fixed around USD 17k, according to fearnleys’s weekly report.
Continent / Medite ...
Tuesday, 15 January 13
GRANT SMITH APPOINTED GROUP MANAGING DIRECTOR OF BRAEMAR ADJUSTING
The Board of Braemar Adjusting is delighted to announce the appointment of Grant Smith as Group Managing Director of the company with immediate effe ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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