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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been on the downside during the past couple of days, mainly as a result of the tropical storm which forced ports to close do ...
Tuesday, 22 January 13
PORT OF ANTWERP HANDLES 7.0 PERCENT MORE COAL IN 2012 Y-Y
COALspot.com - The port of Antwerp handled 184,134,516 tonnes of freight last year.
This represents a drop of 1.6% compared with 2011, when the v ...
Monday, 21 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 10.21 PERCENT LESS COAL W/E 21 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,804,152 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 21 January 2013, Newca ...
Monday, 21 January 13
PANAMAX DRY BULK CARRIERS AND AFRAMAX TANKERS PROVED TO BE THE "WEAPON OF CHOICE" FOR MOST SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With ship financing getting ever so difficult to procure during the past year or so, ship owners had to get creative in order to persuade banks and ...
Sunday, 20 January 13
Q1 & Q4 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: FIRM
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) and CFR South China coal shipment for average Q1’ 2013 delivery have gained 0.81percent and ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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