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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 27 January 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS: WEAK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.31 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 27 January 13
FREIGHT MARKET: FLAT TO SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was soft and all the indices were down except for handy size.
The BDI was down 4.66 pct closing at 798 points.. ...
Friday, 25 January 13
BOTSWANA GOVERNMENT GRANTS COAL LICENSES TO A-CAP RESOURCES LIMITED
A-Cap Resources Limited has announced that it has been granted coal rights within its Bolau tenements which sit next to the Sese Coal and Power Proj ...
Friday, 25 January 13
SMALL ROOM FOR OPTIMISM FOR THE PROSPECTS OF THE DRY BULK MARKET AS NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market didn't manage to post a rebound during the past year, quite the opposite, as a fast fleet growth and slow ...
Thursday, 24 January 13
INDO - INDIA NOW AT APS $ 8K + BB USD 90000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains stable as supply of tonnage is still in excess of demand. USG- Far east fixed at $18k and CONT-FEAST at $ 11k. Pa ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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