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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 31 January 13
DRY BULK RATES ON A FALLING PATTERN DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The seasonal factor has emerged as the latest catalyst in determining the course of the dry bulk market, as the floods in eastern Australia, the big ...
Thursday, 31 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.70 MMT OF COAL W/E 28 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,703,921 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 28 January 2013, Newca ...
Thursday, 31 January 13
MMTC TO IMPORT 2.68 MMT OF COAL FOR ARAVALI POWER CORPORATION LTD
COALspot.com: The tender floated by MMTC on behalf of Aravali Power Corporation Ltd, a Joint venture between NTPC and State of Haryana for supply of ...
Wednesday, 30 January 13
TNPL TO SECURE 300K MT OF IMPORTED COAL SUPPLIES AT US$ 75.95 PMT FOR MARCH - AUGUST 2013 DELIVERY
COALspot.com – Chennai based Coastal Energy Private Limited (C&O Group of companies) offered lowest price of US$ 75.95 per met ...
Monday, 28 January 13
BAYAN RESOURCES TO SELL 18 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO GNPOWER MARIVELES COAL PLANT
Publicly-listed PT Bayan Resources announced on Friday that it had signed an agreement on coal sales with Philippine-based GNPower Mariveles Coal Pl ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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