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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 15 February 13
SCRAPPING TO RISE AS BULKER OWNERS SUFFER - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Drewry's latest Dry Bulk Forecaster report suggests that cash-strapped shipowners will scrap younger and younger ships this year as the dry bulk ma ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
HANDY: ATLANTIC "STABLE"; PACIFIC "QUIET" - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic remain stable with rates for FH from USG around USD 18k. The Pacific remains quiet due to Chinese New Year holidays. Rates were ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
BIMCO FORECASTS MOSTLY HIGHER DRY BULK RATES FOR THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Higher steel demand is expected to keep dry bulk rates elevated during the next six weeks, according to the latest BIMCO forecast. The Organization ...
Wednesday, 13 February 13
6TH ANNUAL CBM CONFERENCE
The 6th Annual CBM conference which will be held in Singapore on 18-21 June 201 offers comprehensive insights into leading CBM projects in the Asia- ...
Tuesday, 12 February 13
GOVERNMENT DECLARED INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE INCHES UP IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal has moved upwards in February 2013.
The monthly coal refere ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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