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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 24 February 13
COAL SWAPS INCH UP WEEK - ON - WEEK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.17 percent and CFR South China coal shipme ...
Sunday, 24 February 13
BDI FELL 1.72 PERCENT BUT FREIGHT MARKET FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady this week but, BDI fell1.72 pct and closed at 740 points.
The cape index also joins BDI ...
Saturday, 23 February 13
IHS MCCLOSKEY 20TH ANNUAL COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
IHS McCloskey 20th Annual Coal Conference of the Americas to be held on 13-14 March 2013 in Cartagena, Colombia
IHS is pleased to invite you to t ...
Thursday, 21 February 13
HANDY : THE PACIFIC MARKET GOT FIRMED UP AS CHINESE CAME BACK FROM HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week but rates remained unchanged as lot of ships in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Bla ...
Thursday, 21 February 13
SPRING COAL PROCUREMENT 2013 IS ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE
In 2012, “Steady Growth” had set the keynote for China’s economic development. Guided by the principle of progressing steadily, do ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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