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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.01 PERCENT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,967,761 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 11 February 2013, Newc ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
INDONESIA SUB-BIT SWAPS: "UP" - CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS: "DOWN"
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.72 percent W-O-W and CFR South China coal shipme ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
DRY BULK OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE SEEN WANING IN THE COMING MONTHS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It seems that the tide could be shifting in the dry bulk market, in terms of tonnage oversupply, according to the latest data figures. This could ex ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
HIGHER BUNKER PRICE PUSHES SEA FREIGHTS FIRM - REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was soft and all at same levels with Chinese year holidays next week.
The BDI was slightly down by 0.27 pct ad ...
Friday, 08 February 13
NORTH P&I CLUB WARNS OF LIQUEFACTION RISK FOR BAUXITE CARGOES
The ‘A’ rated 170 million GT North P&I club has warned shipowners carrying bauxite aluminium ore cargoes that they have the potentia ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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