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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 February 13
CHINA NDRC APPROVED 10 BILLION YUAN POWER GENERATION PROJECTS
NDRC of China currently announced that some of power grid and power station in Jiangxu, Sichuan and Anhui Province would be newly constructed or ext ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
CAPESIZE : MORE ACTIVE WEEK IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remained stable with no significant movement in rates. Rates from USG to FEast were around USD 18k and Black Sea to Feast ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
WEAK STEEL MARKET MEANS IRON ORE RALLY LIKELY TO END SOON - FITCH
The sharp rebound in iron ore prices over the last couple of months will hurt margins at non-integrated steel producers in the first quarter of 2013 ...
Tuesday, 05 February 13
THE SHIPPING SECTOR IS " NAVIGATING IN STORMY WATERS" - PWC
The vulnerabilities of the global economy have been exposed and have more than played their part in making 2011 one of the worst years of shipping i ...
Tuesday, 05 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT COAL SHIPMENTS DROPPED BY 10.77 PERCENT W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,412,497 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 4 February 2013, Newca ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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