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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Roth ...
Tuesday, 19 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 38.65 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 1,820,559 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 February 2013, Newc ...
Monday, 18 February 13
78.75 MILLION TONS OF COAL RESERVES ARE NEWLY PROVEN IN WUGANG HUNAN PROVINCE
COALspot.com - Recently, Wugang City, known as the CHINA hundred key coal producing cities, achieved new breakthroughs in coal exploration: deep coa ...
Sunday, 17 February 13
STEEL DEMAND WILL HELP TO PUSH UP FREIGHT RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady week ended 15 February 2013.
The BDI was slightly up by 0.67 pct closing at 753 points ...
Friday, 15 February 13
2ND ANNUAL INDONESIA MINING 2013 CONFERENCE
Bringing Indonesia's Mining Stakeholders Together Towards Improving Mining Investment Climate & Operations
Following the success of th ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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