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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 February 13
SHIP OWNERS EXPECTED TO FACE A CHALLENGING YEAR, DESPITE THE FALL OF NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tonnage oversupply and a lagging growth in world trade demand are expected to keep shipping in the "red", despite a series of measures ado ...
Thursday, 28 February 13
PANAMAX : MARKET HAS SEEN A GOOD UPTURN OVER THE LAST WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week and rates ticking upwards. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 11k. The ...
Wednesday, 27 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 0.358 MILLION MT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,178,869 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 25 February 2013, Newc ...
Wednesday, 27 February 13
NEWLEAD HOLDINGS LTD. ANNOUNCES COAL SUPPLY AND DELIVERY CONTRACT
NewLead Holdings Ltd. yesterday announced that the Company has signed an agreement to supply and deliver 1.48 million metric tons of steam coal to a ...
Tuesday, 26 February 13
10TH CLEAN COAL FORUM WILL BE HELD ON JUNE 2013
CDMC Events will be presenting the 10th Clean Coal Forum 2013 on June 13 - 14, 2013 in Beijing,China.
It will make you understand regulatory asp ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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