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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 March 13
PANAMAX : POSITIVE TREND; CAPESIZE : GRADUALLY SLIDE - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week and rates ticking upwards. The USG-Feast was at USD 22k and Black sea-feast was at USD 12k. The ...
Tuesday, 05 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 20.77 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 4 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,631,562 MT of thermal and coking coal for a week ended 0700 hours 4 March 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS; CHINA CONTRACTS FALL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.75 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – The freight market has been fairly firm this week except for cape size index.
The BDI was up by 4.64 points closing at 776 p ...
Thursday, 28 February 13
INDIA HAS INCREASED CUSTOMS DUTY AND COUNTERVAILING DUTY FOR POWER PLANT COAL
COALspot.com : The government of India raised basic customs duty and countervailing duty on steam coal. In the meantime government has reduced& ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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