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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 March 13
INDIA - INDONESIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT : FIRM TREND
COALspot.com – This week freight market was raised and remained firm in all segments.
The BDI was up by 6.70 pct closed at 843 points, ...
Sunday, 10 March 13
INDONESIA'S FORESTRY DEPARTMENT IS TO INCREASE BORROW-TO-USE PERMITS (IJIN PINJAM PAKAI) FEE SOON
COALspot.com : Indonesia to increase borrows-to-use permit fees by 33.33 percent. The government of Indonesia is planning to increase the state&rsqu ...
Friday, 08 March 13
EKO SANTOSO BUDIANTO APPOINTED AS PRESDIENT DIRECTOR OF BERAU COAL ENERGY
COALspot.com - PT Berau Coal Energy has appointed Eko Santoso Budianto as new president director, replacing Rosan Roeslani. Berau’s extraordin ...
Friday, 08 March 13
INDONESIAN HBA UP FOR FIVE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal has moved upwards in March 2013.
The monthly coal reference ...
Friday, 08 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON A RISING TREND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has continued its rising pattern set after China opened up again for business, following the Asian New Year Holidays. As a resul ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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