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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 March 13
SHIPPERS AND CARRIERS NEED GREATER COMMUNICATION AND MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING
Press Release – Shippers and shipping lines both need to raise their game if global container supply chains are not to be habitually subject t ...
Wednesday, 13 March 13
NEWBUILDING PRICES EXHIBIT NO FALL IN PAST SIX MONTHS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite the fact that oversupply has been the key plague of the shipping markets in recent years and newbuilding ordering activity has receded subst ...
Tuesday, 12 March 13
COAL MINING PRIVATIZATION IN INDIA: MUST - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - India has the one of the richest coal reserves in the world and the country should have shown significant progress and gained the pos ...
Tuesday, 12 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.47 MILLION TONS OF COAL W/E 11 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,471,080 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 11 March 2013, Newcast ...
Monday, 11 March 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.41 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 1.41percent and CFR South China coal shipment ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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