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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
"While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 17 March 13
A WEAK WEEK FOR SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 2.11 percent and CFR South China coal shipment ...
Sunday, 17 March 13
COAL FREIGHT RATES STEADY ON HIGHER DEMAND - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This freight market continued to remain firm in all segments.
The BDI was up by 5.81 pct closing at 892 points. Cape index was up ...
Friday, 15 March 13
CHEAP SHIP VALUATIONS DON'T NECESSARILY MEAN ATTRACTIVE SAYS VESSELS VALUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With ship prices plunging by double-digits in the past few years, many ship owners are pondering their next moves in a market often described as att ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
SUPRAMAX : INDO - INDIA TRIP RATE IS AROUND $10,000; SOUTH CHINA $9500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Indian market is still quiet in respect of export of iron ore. WC India market has improved with a few stems out of the MEG, WC India opening ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RISING MOMENTUM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has maintained its rising momentum, on the back of increased cargo availability. According to yesterday's figures, the industry ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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