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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 April 13
HANDY : SLIDING ; PANAMAX : POSITIVE ; CAPESIZE : STILL ON ITS KNEES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets started sliding with no fresh cargoes seen in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Black sea-Feast was at USD 11 ...
Saturday, 27 April 13
2ND CHINA INTERNATIONAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - 2nd China International Shale Gas Summit, 10-13 September 2013 | Chengdu, China
*The largest annual event for the shale gas indus ...
Friday, 26 April 13
LIMA SUMMIT IN JULY TO HIGHLIGHT LATIN AMERICAN MINING POTENTIAL
COALspot.com - Latin American mining industry officials and their private sector counterparts will be gathering in Lima, Peru on July 1-2 for the La ...
Wednesday, 24 April 13
FUTURE US POWER MARKET SHARES OF COAL, NATURAL GAS GENERATORS DEPEND ON RELATIVE FUEL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com - In recent years, in US, natural gas competed more effectively with coal as a fuel for electricity generation as the cost of operating ...
Tuesday, 23 April 13
INDONESIAN STATE OWNED COAL MINER SHIPPED 4 PERCENT MORE COAL IN 1Q
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam, the Indonesian state owned coal miner shipped more coal in first quarter of this year compared to the same period in ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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