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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.14 PER CENT MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,997,729 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 29 April 2013, Newca ...
Tuesday, 30 April 13
KATINGAN RIA THERMAL COAL TO START PRODUCTION FROM EARLY 2014
COALspot.com - Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has announced the completion of the Feasibility Study for its 51% owned Katingan Ria thermal co ...
Monday, 29 April 13
FIRST TRADES OF SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com - The SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap went live for clearing on SGX-DC today with a total volume of 25,000 metric tonnes (25 lots). ...
Sunday, 28 April 13
SUB BIT INDONESIA COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average May 2013 delivery has gained 0.34 percent and CFR South China coal shipment gai ...
Sunday, 28 April 13
PANAMAX FREIGHT COULD BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This BDI closed slightly lower at 871 points (down by 1.91 pct) mainly due to drop in the Panamax index by almost 10 pct.
Th ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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