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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 April 13
REALM CONTINUES AS 51% OWNER AND MANAGER OF THE KATINGAN RIA THERMAL COAL PROJECT
COALspot.com - Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has announced today that, the commercial way forward for the development of its 51% held Indonesian t ...
Tuesday, 23 April 13
TIGERS REALM COAL HAS SOME OF THE WORLD'S BEST UNDEVELOPED COKING COAL ASSETS - EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN
COALspot.com - “ During 2012, your Company has made very significant progress towards meeting its stated objective of becoming a global player ...
Tuesday, 23 April 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT COAL SHIPMENTS DROPPED BY 4.38 PERCENT W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,434,336 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 22 April 2013, Newca ...
Sunday, 21 April 13
INDONESIA - INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES ARE FIRMING UP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com – The BDI was up by 1.40 pct closed at 888 points week ended 19 April 2013. The Cape index was down by 2.45 pct closing at 1234 p ...
Friday, 19 April 13
FIRST QUARTER OF 2013 PROVEN A POSITIVE SURPRISE FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite ominous predictions regarding the negative performance of the dry bulk market during the – traditionally weak anyway – first qua ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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